Fin-X Weekly 1st June 2026

Risk appetite improved on hopes of a US-Iran ceasefire, with oil prices retracing and global equities reaching new highs.

US and Australian inflation remained elevated, and central banks remained hawkish despite the growth risks.

China’s industrial profits strengthened sharply, while the latest PMI data pointed to softer manufacturing momentum and modest improvement in services.

The main events this week include Australian GDP, the US labour report and ISM surveys, the Fed’s Beige Book, and the OECD forecasts.

Last week began with lower trading volumes due to public holidays in the US and UK on Monday.

American investors returned from the long weekend to learn that US and Iranian forces had once again traded blows in the Persian Gulf, placing further strain on the ceasefire agreement. Even so, oil prices retraced, and risk appetite rebounded on signs that the two sides were close to a deal. Later in the week, reports indicated that leaders on both sides were considering a memorandum of understanding to extend the 60-day ceasefire.

Bond yields finished the week near their lows after slightly softer, better-than-feared inflation data added to the drop in energy prices. The MSCI AC World closed at a new record high, driven by the S&P 500, which rose for a ninth consecutive week.

The market is eagerly anticipating three large AI-related IPOs: SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic.

The SpaceX valuation was adjusted downward by US$ -200.0 billion last week to approximately US$1.8 billion, with the roadshow set to begin this week. The target listing date of 12^th June implies the stock could be added to Nasdaq indices in early July, with inclusion in the S&P 500 likely to follow around the end of the year.

Anthropic became more valuable than rival OpenAI after announcing a US$65.0 billion Series H financing at a US$965.0 billion valuation. OpenAI was valued at US$852.0 billion after a funding round in April.

The key US macro development was April PCE inflation, which rose +3.8% yoy, the highest since mid-2023. Core PCE rose +3.3% yoy, underlining that war-driven energy pressures and earlier tariff effects are now appearing in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. On a monthly basis, headline PCE rose +0.4%, and core PCE rose +0.2%, slightly softer than consensus forecasts.

Personal incomes were unchanged, significantly undershooting expectations for a +0.4% increase in April. The personal savings rate fell to 2.6% in April, down from 5.8% a year earlier, as rising prices for essentials, including elevated gas prices, made it harder for households to save. It also emerged that more Americans are tapping retirement savings or relying on credit to keep pace with expenses.

At the same time, the second estimate published by the BEA showed Q1 GDP growth revised down from an annualised +2.0% in the first release to +1.6%. Even so, the unemployment rate is expected to have held at 4.3% in May when the data are released on Friday.

Australia’s April monthly CPI inflation eased to +4.2% yoy from +4.6% in March, below consensus expectations of +4.4%. Slower goods inflation and a sharp monthly fall in petrol prices drove the result.

Total household spending fell -1.1% in April, according to the ABS, reversing the strong +1.6% gain in March as energy prices eased. Spending was still up +4.9% versus April 2025, although the annual growth rate is slowing from the March spike. This week’s GDP estimate is expected to show quarterly growth slowing from +0.8% in Q4 to +0.5% in Q1, while remaining at +2.6% yoy.

The data so far suggest that the Reserve Bank can likely be a little more patient before hiking rates for a fourth time in 2026. The market is still pricing in a further rate rise, with inflation expected to continue to rise in the coming months.

The RBA moved earlier than peers due to perceived domestic demand pressures. But international central banks are also leaning slightly more hawkish as energy prices remain elevated, despite emerging growth pressures. Last week, the RBNZ kept rates on hold but became the latest to signal it might need to raise them for the first time since May 2023.

Chinese industrial profits surged +24.7% yoy, the highest rate since November 2023. Over the weekend, the official manufacturing PMI lost momentum, moving from a slightly positive 50.3 in April to a neutral 50.0 in May. In contrast, the non-manufacturing PMI improved slightly, rising from 49.4 to 50.1. The RatingDog PMIs follow later today and on Wednesday.

Besides the Australian GDP figures and US labour report, the ISM surveys and JOLTS report are due this week, along with the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. The OECD is also set to release its latest forecasts.

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