Brett Careedy

Despite the headline miss, the Q1 GDP report contained more positive details. The gradual decline in GDP growth would have been welcomed by the RBA. But yesterday's Fair Work announcement complicates the rate outlook. The Australian economy grew by +0.3% in seasonally adjusted real terms, according to the ABS today. Economists had expected a slightly higher +0.4%, but Q4 2025 was also revised +0.1% higher to +0.9%, offsetting the quarterly undershoot. Annual real GDP growth was +2.5%, the...

Risk appetite improved on hopes of a US-Iran ceasefire, with oil prices retracing and global equities reaching new highs. US and Australian inflation remained elevated, and central banks remained hawkish despite the growth risks. China’s industrial profits strengthened sharply, while the latest PMI data pointed to softer manufacturing momentum and modest improvement in services. The main events this week include Australian GDP, the US labour report and ISM surveys, the Fed’s Beige Book, and...

Slightly better-than-expected CPI figures and slightly worse employment data are likely to keep the RBA on hold for now. Australian headline CPI inflation receded from +4.6% yoy in March to +4.2% in April. The consensus forecast was for a +4.4% rise in prices. Monthly inflation also undershot expectations, dropping from +1.1% to +0.4%. Trimmed mean inflation increased slightly from +3.3% yoy in March to +3.4% yoy, in line with forecasts. Monthly trimmed mean inflation was in line at +0.3%,...