Fin-X Weekly 15th of June 2026

Global equities ended higher as hopes of a Middle East peace deal supported risk appetite, while oil prices eased and bond yields declined.

AI remained in focus as SpaceX rallied on debut, while Anthropic faced export-control disruption and Google faced a significant AI liability ruling in Germany.

US inflation accelerated, led by energy, and the ECB raised rates. The Bank of Japan is expected to follow this week, while the RBA and several European central banks are expected to hold.

The week ahead centres on Middle East negotiations, central bank decisions, the G7 meeting, US industrial production, and Chinese activity data.

Global equity indices were somewhat volatile last week but closed higher. Asian markets led gains on Friday as hopes of a Middle East peace deal strengthened. The improved tone supported broader risk appetite, while the oil price dropped below US$90 per barrel. Global bond yields moved lower, and the US dollar DXY index weakened by -0.3%, despite higher inflation prints.

President Trump announced over the weekend that an interim deal would be signed on Sunday, leading to an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran refuted the timeline, but some form of agreement still appears likely in the coming days.

Earlier in the week, equities had sold off sharply, particularly in US technology and semiconductors, following the previous week’s stronger-than-expected payroll data and a severe drawdown in AI-linked chip names.

Nevertheless, SpaceX rallied on its eagerly anticipated debut on Friday. The share price closed at US$160.95, a +19.2% gain on the day, handing Elon Musk the title of the world’s first trillionaire.

The listing was the first of the AI mega-IPOs expected this year. OpenAI and Anthropic have now both filed with the SEC and are expected to list in September and October, respectively.

Anthropic suffered a setback over the weekend. Having released the Fable 5 model on Tuesday, a safer version of the Mythos 5 model that had found numerous vulnerabilities in legacy software, the company was forced to take it down just 3 days later. The American government issued an export control directive to Anthropic on Friday afternoon, citing national security concerns. The directive ordered Anthropic to suspend access for any foreign national, including its own foreign national employees. Authorities had reportedly learned of a technique to jailbreak Fable 5’s guardrails. To ensure compliance, Anthropic pulled both Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers globally, not only foreign users. Access to all other Claude models will not be affected.

In an unrelated ruling that may yet prove significant, a regional court in Germany issued a preliminary injunction against Google this week, holding it directly liable for false statements generated by its AI Overviews feature after two publishers were wrongly linked to scams and subscription traps. The court drew a sharp distinction between traditional search, which indexes third-party content, and AI-generated summaries, finding that the latter constitutes “independent, new, and substantive statements” authored by Google itself. The court rejected Google’s arguments that users could check links and that users understand AI can be wrong. The decision follows similar liability rulings in Canada and Norway.

The key data release last week was the American CPI report. Headline prices rose +0.5% in May and +4.2% yoy, the highest annual rate since April 2023 and a notable step up from the previous month’s +3.8%. The acceleration was almost entirely attributable to energy prices, which rose by nearly +4.0% over the month and more than +23% over the year. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose a modest +0.2% over the month and +2.9% yoy, only marginally higher than April and broadly in line with expectations.

A relatively benign shelter component is restraining inflation. Nevertheless, upside risks stem from several areas, even as oil prices retreat. The Fed’s “Supercore” measure of core services excluding housing accelerated to +3.7% yoy, suggesting price increases were broadening. Producer prices rose +6.5% yoy, higher than anticipated, while Chinese PPI reached +3.9% yoy. These figures suggest rising costs for businesses and imported goods may contribute to stickier future inflation.

Incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is due to deliver his first press conference this week. With an updated Summary of Economic Projections also scheduled, the pattern of the dot plots is likely to tilt toward the hawkish side. No rate change is expected, although markets still price in a quarter-point interest rate rise by the end of the year.

Last week, the ECB delivered the first G7 policy rate increase since the war in Iran began, raising its deposit rate by +0.25% to 2.25% amid energy-driven inflation concerns. The Bank of Japan has guided investors to expect an increase this week, with a move from 0.75% to 1.00% fully priced in.

In contrast, the RBA is likely to remain on hold tomorrow following rate rises at each of the last three meetings. Despite the Melbourne Institute reporting consumer inflation expectations at 5.5%, the RBA perceives monetary policy as restrictive. Business and consumer confidence also remain subdued, suggesting the Board can afford time to assess incoming activity data.

The British, Swiss, Swedish, and Norwegian central banks are also expected to leave rates on hold this week. However, all but the Swiss are priced to raise rates in the coming months. The UK printed a stronger-than-expected GDP figure for April, with monthly growth of +0.3% versus expectations for a small contraction. The data suggest some resilience despite a 3.75% policy rate and elevated energy costs.

Leading up to the American public holiday on Friday, the prospective Middle East peace deal and central bank meetings are likely to dominate this week’s news. The G7 leaders will also meet in France, while a UK by-election could open the door to a challenge to Keir Starmer’s position as prime minister by the Mayor of Greater Manchester.

US and European industrial production figures are due out tonight. The monthly Chinese activity figures will be published tomorrow, before the RBA decision and the European ZEW surveys. European inflation and unemployment data will also be released throughout the week, with Japanese CPI figures expected on Friday.

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