Fin-X Weekly 24th November 2025

Global equities struggled to find a firm footing last week amid ongoing signs of tightening market liquidity. Growth asset prices saw profit-taking despite well-received Nvidia earnings, and the bitcoin price fell below US$90,000 for the first time since April.

Nvidia reported fiscal third-quarter results that beat expectations for sales and earnings, and issued a strong forecast for the current quarter. CEO Jensen Huang sounded confident, rejecting talk of an AI bubble and saying Nvidia expects about US$65 billion in sales in the current quarter, representing +65% annual growth. He added that people will soon start appreciating what’s happening beneath the surface of the AI boom, versus “the simplistic view of what’s happening to capex and investment.” CFO Colette Kress referenced “geopolitical issues” affecting sales to China. The share price slipped by -5.9% over the week in US dollar terms.

Global fixed income was a relative bright spot, adding value over the week. However, trouble appears to be brewing in riskier parts of the debt markets. Private lender Blue Owl was forced to call off the merger of its two private-credit funds after its stock price fell on the announcement, suggesting the firm was having difficulty meeting redemption requests. High-profile bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach dampened investor sentiment, warning that parts of the American private credit industry are engaging in “garbage lending” that could turn into solvency issues. Moody’s added that private credit is introducing layers of complexity and risk, noting that novel financing structures are obscuring leverage.

In economic news, Australian wage growth held at +3.4% yoy for a second consecutive quarter. Steady wage growth suggests that some slack is returning to the labour market. After the recent CPI surprise, lower real wage growth negatively impacts consumer purchasing power but supports short-term corporate profitability, contributing to a recent rise in confidence. Commenting on the slight increase in Australia’s November flash PMI survey, Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global, said, “Overall, faster new business growth coupled with business optimism rising to the highest level in five months hint at continued business activity growth in the near term for Australia. Price pressures also remain broadly muted despite picking up from the start of the final quarter. And although employment growth slowed, this was partly attributed to hiring challenges, especially in the service sector.”

Elsewhere, the flash PMI reports were relatively upbeat. Europe is experiencing service-driven expansion, with output rising for the last 11 months. Japanese momentum is also improving in the industrial sector, despite real annual GDP growth slowing to an annualised -1.8% in Q3. CPI inflation at 3.0% yoy keeps the Bank of Japan on track for a rate rise in early 2026.

The UK was a notable exception, with growth running at a much lower rate. UK inflation cooled from 3.8% in September to +3.6% yoy last month, boosting rate-cut expectations. The chancellor will deliver an updated fiscal plan this week.

The US PMI was more mixed. Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson said, “A marked uplift in business confidence about prospects in the year ahead adds to the good news. Hopes for further interest rate cuts and the ending of the government shutdown have boosted optimism alongside a broader undercurrent of improved economic optimism and reduced concerns over the political environment.

“However, manufacturers reported a worrying combination of slower new orders growth and a record rise in finished goods stock. This accumulation of unsold inventory hints at slower factory production expansion in the coming months unless demand revives, which could in turn feed through to lower growth in many service industries.

“Furthermore, although jobs continued to be created in November, the rate of hiring continues to be constrained by worries over costs, in turn linked to tariffs. Both input costs and selling prices rose at increased rates in November, which will be of concern to the inflation hawks.”

Expectations for a December rate cut diminished after the labour report, delayed by the shutdown, was released on Thursday. According to BLS figures, the American economy added +119k jobs in September, compared to an estimate of +53k and more than the Federal Reserve deems compatible with stable inflation. However, the payroll figures are highly likely to be revised, and the unemployment rate is currently considered the more reliable indicator. Unemployment rose to 4.4%, compared to 4.1% this time last year.

Before the data release, the latest FOMC minutes showed that “many” members believe no further cuts are needed at least in 2025. Fed Governor Michael Barr said the committee must proceed with caution as inflation is running above target. Austan Goolsbee signalled he remains apprehensive about lowering rates in December. Nevertheless, the market is now pricing roughly a 60% chance of a cut after influential New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday, “I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions. Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.”

The FOMC will have a difficult task as it will not see a complete set of data when it next meets on 10^th December. The BLS announced last week that it had cancelled the October CPI report due to the shutdown, and the next payrolls and inflation data will not be available until after the meeting, when the October and November employment reports will be published simultaneously.

In a further indication of tighter liquidity, the US dollar strengthened despite hopes of more rate cuts. The US trade deficit, an important source of global dollar supply, narrowed in August as businesses kept inventories lean amid tariff risks and policy uncertainty, with imports falling more sharply than exports.

Although the Supreme Court has yet to rule on the country-specific tariffs, trade deals continue to be pursued. India said it is close to sealing the first phase of a trade deal with the US. India’s trade deficit widened to a record last month, with exports to the US plunging after Donald Trump’s 50% punitive tariffs. The president also hosted the Saudi Arabian leader at the White House and announced a trillion-dollar investment pledge. Analysts remain sceptical that the kingdom has the capacity to deliver this figure.

Tariff concerns and a pressured consumer were recurring themes in retail earnings reports. Target trimmed its 2025 profit forecast amid markdowns and soft demand. Walmart said it grew market share as more shoppers sought lower-cost items, offsetting higher tariff-related costs. Buy-now-pay-later lender Block said it expects annual gross profit growth through 2028 to be in the mid-teens, with adjusted operating income climbing about 30% annually. This week's Black Friday sales after the Thanksgiving holiday will provide a further read on the overall health of the American consumer.

Beyond the US holidays and UK budget, the G20 meeting will take place in Johannesburg this week. However, the leaders of the United States, China, Russia, Argentina and Mexico are not expected to attend.

Key data releases include US retail sales, the European IFO survey, and the first Australian monthly CPI report based on a full sample of data.

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