Fin-X Weekly 23rd February 2026

Australian equities led global markets, supported by recovering earnings, with miners and banks leading. Bond yields halted their decline, while energy and gold prices rose as investors tracked US forces surrounding Iran.  

US trade policy uncertainty intensified after the Supreme Court ruled against the IEEPA tariffs, and the president immediately followed with a new 10%, then 15%, global tariff. He is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union speech this week. 

The flash PMI surveys were mixed. US growth appeared to cool while inflation signals stayed firm, reinforcing the Fed’s focus on sticky prices and the possibility of a more restrictive stance if inflation persists. 

This week’s macro focus will be on Australian and eurozone consumer inflation, and US producer prices. Reporting season continues, with Nvidia being the highlight. 

Source: Bloomberg, ABS, 21^st February 2026 

Australian shares were the standout performers last week, with the S&P/ASX 200 briefly touching a new all-time high during Thursday's trading, before edging back on Friday. Australian earnings have returned to growth after roughly three years of declines, led by miners and banks. 

BHP shares rose by +4.3% after the company delivered a blockbuster H1 result, with revenue up +11% yoy to US$ 27.9 bn, and underlying profit up +22% to US$ 6.2bn. The dividend was increased by +46% to US$0.73 per share. 

National Australia Bank (+5.0%) also reported a strong start to FY26 with underlying profit up 12% on the prior comparable period. 

Telstra shares (+3.4%) also hit a nine-year high after HY26 numbers showed group cash EBIT up +14% and operating expenses down -2.4%.  

Australian bond yields were little changed and the currency remained above 0.70 US cents after the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in January, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Sean Crick, ABS head of labour statistics, said, "This month fewer people reported working less hours than typical Januarys due to being on leave. This contributed to hours worked growing more strongly than employment".  

The data still carried some softer signals. The underemployment rate rose +0.2% to 5.9% in January, and the underutilisation rate also grew by +0.2% to 10.0%. "The participation rate of 66.7% was -0.6 percentage points lower than the record high measured in January 2025," Mr Crick said.  

Q4 2025 wages were in line at +0.8% qoq and +3.4% yoy. Wage growth is consistent with the RBA's 2%-3% target, provided that productivity improves by at least +0.4%. 

The recent forecast accompanying the rate rise showed that the RBA expects inflation to continue to rise to a peak of +4.2% yoy in the middle of this year. In contrast, this week's CPI reading is expected to show that inflation dropped back from +3.8% yoy in December to +3.7% in January. 

The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose by more than +2% thanks to a +5.9% surge in the Brent Crude oil price as a US strike on Iran appears increasingly likely. The deployment of two carrier strike groups, along with other aviation assets, is still being described as leverage for a negotiated outcome on Iran's nuclear program rather than a declared decision to go to war. President Trump gave Iran 10–15 days to reach a nuclear deal, warning of “really bad things” if it fails to comply. The gold price also rose back above US$5,000 per oz.  

President Trump came under renewed domestic pressure as a centrepiece of his agenda was dealt a hammer blow on Friday. The Supreme Court, in a 6-to-3 decision, ruled that Mr Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs on nearly every US trading partner last year. The court ruled that the IEEPA tariffs, estimated to have raised about  

Source: Bloomberg, BEA, 21^st February 2026 

US$ 142 billion in revenue by the Yale Budget Lab, were not lawful. However, there are still doubts about whether importers will recover the revenue, as the case was returned to a lower court.  

According to the Budget Lab estimates, the IEEPA tariffs account for roughly half of the new tariffs imposed since the president took office a year ago. Other Section 301 and 232 tariffs remain in place. Mr Trump responded angrily and immediately created more trade uncertainty as he signed a new 10% “global tariff” under Trade Act Section 122, explicitly pitched as a replacement for the emergency tariffs the Court invalidated. This was then raised to a 15% tariff on Saturday. However, the duties can only remain in place for 150 days. Mr Trump has said he will also order a raft of trade investigations that could allow him to impose more permanent, but complex, tariffs. The decision to pursue alternative paths leaves the outcomes dependent on how quickly these investigations proceed, and on what form any longer-lasting measures ultimately take. At the very least, the move risks prolonging uncertainty and further delaying projects. 

The news came as the first estimate of US Q4 2025 GDP hit an annualised +1.4%, down from +4.4% in Q3 and far below consensus around 3.0%. The BEA and subsequent analysis attribute much of the deceleration to the record 43-day federal shutdown from October to mid-November, which knocked roughly 0.9% off growth by lowering federal spending and delaying activity. Some of the foregone activity is expected to catch up in this quarter, despite an ongoing partial shutdown. However, consumer spending ominously also slowed from +2.3% to +1.6% (annualised). 

Nominal GDP rose by an annualised +5.1% as price increases remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The preferred PCE inflation measure of +2.9% yoy was +0.1% higher in December and above the consensus forecast. Core PCE (ex-food and energy) also accelerated by more than anticipated to +3.0% yoy, suggesting that disinflation has stalled.  

Earlier in the week, the FOMC minutes showed members remain more concerned about inflation than originally understood. They stressed that risks have shifted away from the labour market and toward inflation staying persistently above 2%, and that progress back to target could be “slower and more uneven” than previously assumed. They noted that “several” officials wanted the statement to explicitly acknowledge that rates could rise again if inflation remains above target. 

Elsewhere, a March cut from the Bank of England became much more likely as CPI fell from +3.4% yoy to +3.0% yoy, with unemployment also edging up to 5.2%.  

Japanese GDP disappointed, rising by +0.1% in Q4. However, industrial production grew by +2.6% yoy in December. Even though headline Japanese CPI inflation (+1.5%) fell below the 2% target for the first time since March 2022, the Bank of Japan is still expected to raise rates later this year following renewed fiscal stimulus. 

The latest flash PMIs echoed last week's activity readings. Developed market output grew for the tenth successive month, albeit unevenly. S&P Global reported that manufacturing growth is leading in the eurozone and Japan, while US activity is easing. 

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global said of the US economy: "A combination of weakened demand, high prices, and adverse weather colluded to dampened business activity in February, resulting in the slowest expansion of output for ten months. Customer demand growth has softened, with orders even falling in factories, curbing jobs growth to a crawl across both manufacturing and services. The PMI data so far this year are indicative of GDP rising at an annualised rate of just 1.5%, signalling a marked cooling of the economy in the first quarter compared to the robust growth rates seen in the second half of last year."  

This finding contrasts with the recent reacceleration in the ISM manufacturing new orders series.  

The Chinese lunar new year celebrations continue into the start of this week, while investors will be keeping a watchful eye on the Middle East.  

President Trump will deliver the annual State of the Union address to Congress on the evening of Tuesday, 24^th, Washington DC time. 

The Australian consumer price inflation figures are due out on Wednesday along with eurozone CPI, followed by US PPI figures on Friday.  

Reporting season continues in Australia and overseas, with Nvidia earnings due out on Thursday. 

Source: Bloomberg, S&P Global, JPMorgan, HCOB, CFLP 21^st February 2026 

Significant Upcoming Data: 

Source: Bloomberg, S&P Dow Jones, MSCI, FTSE Russell, 21^st February 2026 

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