Fin-X Weekly 13th July 2026

Record semiconductor earnings reinforced expectations of persistent memory shortages, as Samsung's profits surged and SK Hynix set a record for the largest public listing by a foreign company in the US.

An end to the ceasefire in the Persian Gulf lifted oil prices, although equity and bond markets remained relatively stable.

The IMF said global disinflation had stalled and slightly downgraded its Australian growth forecast, despite limited evidence of a material domestic slowdown. Federal Reserve minutes showed greater concern about inflation while the RBNZ raised rates, and the RBA maintained a hawkish stance.

The week ahead includes US inflation and retail sales, Chinese GDP and activity data, global industrial production figures, Federal Reserve testimony and the start of the Q2 earnings season.

Stock and bond indices were little changed despite Brent crude rising +5.4% following a substantial escalation in the Persian Gulf.

Semiconductor shares remained under pressure early in the week. With relatively little exposure to the sector, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 53,000 for the first time on Monday before consolidating for the rest of the week.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index later recovered, closing +2.7% higher on Friday after Samsung Electronics reported a nineteen-fold increase in earnings to 89.4 trillion won for the three months to June. The result exceeded projections by about 6%.

Samsung shares nevertheless fell -8.5% in Seoul despite the record quarterly profit. Investors had largely priced in the substantial margins earned by chipmakers during the historic expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure worldwide.

Analysts expect memory shortages to persist until at least 2027, providing Samsung and its competitors with considerable pricing power. DRAM selling prices rose by more than +40% during the April–June quarter, while NAND prices increased by more than +50%. TSMC will report its earnings this week.

SK Hynix completed the largest US public listing by a foreign company in market history, raising US$26.5 billion through a seven-times oversubscribed American depositary receipt offering. Chief executive Kwak Noh-Jung said the artificial intelligence boom had transformed the memory chip industry, with customers now seeking long-term supply agreements due to persistent shortages.

SK Hynix will use the proceeds to expand chip manufacturing. The company may bring memory production to the US and is considering new sales models, including “memory as a service”, to meet growing demand.

Bloomberg reported that technology companies are issuing bonds in unprecedented US$25 billion tranches to finance AI expansion, even as Wall Street shows signs of fatigue. Six megacap companies have raised US$182 billion in 2026, accounting for 15% of total US issuance, as investors approach their exposure limits.

SpaceX fell by -10.3% over the week after joining the Nasdaq 100 Index on Tuesday. The decline likely reflected active managers selling after the initial passive demand faded.

In Australian technology news, WiseTech Global executive chairman Richard White stepped down with immediate effect. White said recent media reports concerning allegations of human trafficking were distracting attention from the strength of the business.

Independent director Raelene Murphy will replace White as chairwoman. White will remain an executive director and continue to serve as chief innovation officer.

Telstra’s chief executive apologised for last week’s outage, which is likely to leave shareholders exposed to customer claims and the risk of a regulatory response. The company’s share price nevertheless traded only -1.8% lower over the week.

For once, geopolitics had less influence on broader financial markets. The principal development was US President Donald Trump’s statement that he believed the US ceasefire with Iran was over.

The US has demanded that Iran publicly confirm that all channels through the Strait of Hormuz are open to shipping and that it will not attack civilian vessels passing through the waterway. Washington warned that Tehran’s failure to comply would have consequences.

The US blamed Iran for last week’s attacks on ships transiting the strait and subsequently launched strikes against Iranian targets. Iran retaliated against US bases in the region.

A US official said Iran had attributed the recent attacks on shipping to rogue elements within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Iran’s Foreign Ministry rejected claims that Tehran had requested a new round of talks.

On Sunday, the US launched a third series of strikes against Iran, targeting its capacity to attack commercial shipping after Iranian forces struck a Cyprus-flagged container vessel. Iran declared that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice” and would prevent vessels from passing until foreign interference ended.

The developments raised further doubts about the prospects for a more durable peace agreement, although both sides had previously suggested that discussions remained possible despite their heated rhetoric. Any talks between the US and Iran would also need to resolve issues beyond the Strait, including the status of frozen Iranian assets and the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.

While the US remained focused on the Gulf, China attracted criticism after firing a ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into Pacific waters for the first time. Regional neighbours viewed the test as a provocation.

Markets hotly anticipated the minutes of the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting under new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh. The committee voted unanimously to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, although the minutes revealed differences in outlook among members.

A few Federal Reserve officials argued that there was a case for raising interest rates. More broadly, the minutes showed increasing concern about inflation as worries over the labour market receded slightly.

“Participants generally assessed that information received over the intermeeting period suggested that upside risks to price stability remained elevated while downside risks to achieving maximum employment had moderated a bit,” the minutes said.

Core US consumer price inflation is expected to remain at +2.9% yoy when the June figures are released this week. Headline inflation is expected to moderate to +3.8% yoy, reflecting lower energy costs before the latest escalation in the Persian Gulf.

Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress this week after announcing the leaders of five Federal Reserve task forces last week. The groups will examine the Fed’s communications strategy, balance sheet, use of and reliance on existing data sources, productivity and employment, and inflation frameworks.

In an update to its April 2026 forecasts, the International Monetary Fund said: “Global disinflation has stalled. Risks are more balanced than in April, but downside risks from renewed conflict and financial market repricing persist. Policymakers should preserve price stability, rebuild fiscal space, and strengthen adaptability”.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered its first interest rate increase in three years on Wednesday, raising the Official Cash Rate from 2.25% to 2.50%.

Reserve Bank of Australia chief economist Sarah Hunter said a period of higher unemployment might be required to bring inflation under control. Her comments provided the latest warning that households and businesses should prepare for an economic slowdown.

Hunter again signalled that the RBA remained open to raising interest rates for a fourth time this year if persistent inflation failed to ease.

Chinese inflation data continued to show a divergence between consumer and business costs, maintaining pressure on the profit margins of domestically focused companies. Headline consumer price inflation rose +1.0% yoy in June, slowing from +1.2% in both April and May and falling slightly below the Reuters consensus estimate of +1.1%.

Producer price inflation increased to +4.1% yoy in June from +3.9% in May. This was the highest reading since July 2022 and the fourth consecutive monthly acceleration. This week’s gross domestic product figures are expected to show that annual economic growth slowed to +4.5% during the second quarter.

The IMF expects the global economy to grow by +3.0% in 2026 and +3.4% in 2027. The cumulative forecast was broadly unchanged from the April 2026 World Economic Outlook.

“The outlook is uneven: The war shock is weighing on energy importers and vulnerable economies, while AI-driven demand is lifting countries integrated into the global technology value chain”, the Fund said.

The IMF downgraded its forecast for Australian growth from +2.0% to +1.9%. So far, real economic data have not shown evidence of a material slowdown.

Job advertisements remain steady, while unemployment has risen only slightly. Concerns nevertheless persist about the impact of falling house prices and the associated wealth effects following the recent tax reforms. Business and consumer confidence have remained low, with updated readings due tomorrow.

The other significant releases this week include US inflation, retail sales and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. The US, Europe and China will also publish industrial production figures.

China will release its monthly activity indicators alongside its estimate of second-quarter GDP growth. The US corporate earnings season will also begin, with TSMC, Netflix and the major banks among the companies due to report.

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