Fin-X Weekly 10th November 2025

Global risk appetite softened as tighter liquidity, the continuing shutdown, and disappointing employment data weighed on global markets despite positive earnings results. The Nasdaq led declines, and speculative assets came under pressure.

Australian shares also slipped after mixed earnings results from financials and a higher RBA inflation forecast. The cash rate was kept on hold, with any future rate cuts likely to occur later than previously anticipated.

The Supreme Court greeted the administration’s tariff appeal arguments with apparent scepticism. Last week’s election results may have made it a little harder to secure congressional support for tariffs.

The coming week will see the COP30 summit take place in Brazil. Australian business and consumer surveys will be published ahead of the October employment data. Eurozone and UK Q3 GDP figures, as well as China’s key monthly activity readings, are also due. US CPI figures are scheduled but may be delayed.

Global markets faced renewed headwinds last week as tighter liquidity conditions began to weigh on asset prices. Disappointing US employment and sentiment data added to a cautious tone. Central banks in Australia, the UK, Sweden, and Norway all kept policy rates unchanged but struck notably different notes on the outlook. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court appeared sceptical of the administration’s pro-tariff arguments, and political pressure mounted to end the government shutdown following voter backlash.

Liquidity tightening hit speculative assets. Bitcoin fell below US$100,000 for the first time since June, and gold dipped below US$4,000, while high-growth technology valuations were challenged and investor exuberance was somewhat tempered.

Shares in Palantir Technologies dropped more than -10.0% despite beating forecasts and raising guidance for 2025 revenue growth to +53.0, ending the week still trading on a price-earnings multiple above 400x.

At the same time, Tesla’s shareholders delivered a strong endorsement of its leadership. Shareholders voted overwhelmingly in favour of Elon Musk’s up to $1 trillion pay package; the meeting drew cheers and a brief chant of “Elon, Elon”.

In contrast, the prior weekend brought news that Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s cash pile rose to US$381.7 billion in the third quarter, a fresh record.

The Nasdaq Composite led US equity losses, falling by more than -3.0%. Even so, major indices found support late in the week around their 50-day moving averages. With the reporting season nearing its end, S&P 500 earnings are up +11.8% on a year ago, with 452 of 499 constituents having reported.

The S&P/ASX 300 index slipped by -1.3% amid a weaker global lead, lower metal prices, mixed bank earnings, and the prospect of fewer rate cuts.

National Australia Bank’s full-year profit was broadly in line with forecasts, with a modest upside surprise in its net interest margin, suggesting resilience. Westpac reported lower annual profit as business-lending growth was offset by declining mortgage market share, posting A$6.92 billion for the year to September, down -1.0% from the prior year but just ahead of consensus. In contrast, Macquarie Group’s first-half profit fell -21.0% to A$1.65 billion, missing expectations on weaker commodities trading. The Block share price also declined by -16.1% over the week after profits came in short of estimates.

The RBA held the cash rate at 3.6% on Tuesday but was less hawkish than anticipated after the recent Q3 inflation surprise. With CPI inflation now expected to hit +3.7% yoy in June, the RBA is likely to be constrained in the short term. The governor emphasised that temporary factors alone were likely to see CPI return to target. The forecasts relied on market pricing assumptions of one more cut, so the governor hinted that the Board is still inclined to ease again at some stage, with markets pricing another cut most likely in the second half of 2026.

Housing indicators pointed to renewed heat, but slower rate cuts may slow property price growth. Cotality reported that Australian home prices accelerated to their fastest monthly growth in more than two years, rising +1.1% in October and coinciding with the Albanese government’s expansion of its first home-buyer deposit guarantee scheme. The increase marked the strongest monthly rise since June 2023.

Household spending data (+5.1% yoy), however, suggested some ongoing consumer strain as September expenditure undershot forecasts. ABS Head of Business Statistics Tom Lay said: “Spending on non-discretionary items drove the overall rise, as households spent more on food, health, and petrol.” He added that discretionary categories were flat, with gains in recreation and culture offset by lower spending on air travel and accommodation.

US economic updates were limited by the government shutdown, which began on 1^st October. Having surpassed the previous 35-day record, it is now the longest in US history. While previous shutdowns have produced limited lasting impact, the duration of this one is raising concerns about economic spillovers. Aviation authorities have moved to ration capacity, implementing a phased reduction in flights starting with a -4% cutback, which is set to rise to -10% within about a week. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned that cuts could increase to -20% if the shutdown continues. The announcement raised concerns about travel disruption over the Thanksgiving weekend in two weeks.

Consumer worries over the shutdown surged in early November, pushing the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey to its lowest in more than three years and just off its worst level ever. The current-conditions index slipped to 52.3, a fall of nearly -11.0% from last month, while the future-expectations measure dropped to 49.0, down -2.6%.

The little employment data showed a labour market losing momentum. Private companies added +42k jobs in October after a decline of -29k in September, according to ADP. However, US companies announced -153k job cuts last month, up +175% compared to a year ago and driven by the technology and warehousing sectors, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Indeed reported that employment opportunities fell to their lowest level in more than four years, and salary offers also declined as job advertisements fell.

Industrial activity remained subdued. The ISM employment gauge contracted for an eighth consecutive month, and factory output continued to decline amid tepid demand. However, new services orders expanded.

In Washington, the US Supreme Court heard arguments over country-specific tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. A slight majority of justices appeared sceptical of the administration’s case. Prediction markets now assign only an approximately 30% chance that the Court will side with the government. Should the tariffs be blocked, the White House may pursue alternative measures via Congress. However, the Democratic gains in all of last week’s elections may weaken Republican legislative support.

China’s latest figures underscored a slow recovery. Exports unexpectedly contracted by -1.1% in the year ending October, with shipments to the US down -25.0%. Imports rose by +1.0%, below expectations of +3.2%. October’s manufacturing data also confirmed contraction for a seventh consecutive month. October producer prices continued to deflate (-2.1% yoy) while consumer prices shifted from deflation to mild inflation (+0.2% yoy).

In the UK, monetary policy appears to be turning a corner. Five members of the Bank of England’s MPC voted to hold the Bank Rate at 4.0%, while four favoured a -0.25% cut. Governor Andrew Bailey told CNBC: “We’re past peak-restrictiveness,” adding that policy remains tight but has shifted from its most restrictive stance. Economists now anticipate a pre-Christmas rate cut, with markets fully pricing the move.

Looking ahead, attention will turn to the COP30 climate summit in Brazil and China’s Singles’ Day sales.

In Australia, the NAB Business and Westpac Consumer surveys are due tomorrow, followed by the October unemployment report on Thursday, expected to show a rate of 4.4%.

Eurozone and UK GDP figures precede China’s monthly activity data on Friday.

In the US, CPI is scheduled but may be delayed by the shutdown. If resolved, an avalanche of American data may soon follow.

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