Fin-X Weekly Update 31st August 2026
Global equities were little changed, holding near record highs as well-received earnings met higher interest rate expectations. Oil prices fell over the week as the US stepped up economic pressure on Iran.
Kevin Walsh delivered a hawkish message at his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair.
Australian household spending exceeded expectations, increasing the likelihood of future RBA rate hikes.
This week’s calendar includes a G20 finance meeting, Australian Q2 GDP figures, eurozone inflation, Chinese PMIs, the ISM surveys, and the American labour report.
Major equity indices were little changed last week as corporate earnings were broadly well received, even as investors grappled with the prospect of higher interest rates. That concern weighed most heavily on the rate-sensitive global and Australian real estate sectors.
The Australian reporting season provided much of the domestic focus. Of the S&P/ASX 300, 247 of 284 index members have now reported their semi-annual earnings, with revenue up +9.7% yoy and earnings +20.1% higher, according to figures compiled by Bloomberg.
Among those reporting last week were Coles (which rose +4.3% over the week), Woolworths (+2.0%), Wesfarmers (-3.1%), Woodside (-4.6%), Ampol (+5.6%) and Qantas (+3.6%). The principal signal was that Australian consumers remained price-sensitive but were prepared to spend on value, while resources, energy, media and parts of discretionary retail delivered a more mixed picture.
Credit sentiment was tested by news that major Sydney residential developer Bathla Group entered voluntary administration on Tuesday after mounting financial stress. The group has around 219 active projects, of which 45 are under construction, with roughly 2,000 dwellings currently being built and a further 13,000 in the development pipeline. Management attributed the collapse to a "perfect storm" of weaker sales, higher construction costs, tax policy changes and softer confidence in key buyer markets. The market reaction, however, has focused on Bathla's reported dependence on non-bank and private-credit funding, reviving concerns over valuation opacity, liquidity mismatch, and developer concentration risk within private-credit vehicles.
Overseas, Nvidia reported earnings on Thursday, posting record quarterly revenue of US$96.2 billion for the second quarter, a +106% increase on a year earlier. The result beat expectations on both revenue and earnings, and after an initially choppy reaction, the stock ultimately rallied on an exceptionally strong forward outlook, finishing the week +1.3% higher. The company now expects revenue growth of roughly +70% for the 2028 fiscal year, well above the +45% rise analysts had anticipated.
Nvidia's results come as price indices show the rental costs of their latest chips remain elevated compared to itself historically. Higher prices suggest demand for Nvidia's chips remain strong.
Meta reached a settlement covering child-safety claims related to its Facebook and Instagram platforms. The agreement, struck with the majority of US states, could result in the company paying up to US$17 billion. Despite the sizeable headline figure, the final amount carries several contingencies and was ultimately perceived as favourable to the company, whose shares closed +5.1% higher over the week.
In China, industrial profits growth slowed in July to its weakest pace this year, expanding +11.2% from a year earlier. Even so, industrial profitability has staged a notable turnaround, swinging from years of on-off declines since 2021, and barely positive growth last year, to double-digit gains this year.
The US administration took steps to tame long-term price increases. President Trump unveiled a deal that will provide American access to about 65 billion barrels of proven Venezuelan oil reserves. At the same time, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced "Operation Economic Outcast", intended to apply further pressure on Iran. The Treasury is expanding its authority to sanction any person or entity, anywhere in the world, that operates in five of Iran's "most vital lifelines": digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. China described the sanctions as "illegal unilateral" measures with "no basis in international law".
The Brent crude price fell -6.7% over the week. Global bond yields nevertheless finished higher, reflecting the prospect of broader price pressures and a more hawkish tone from central banks.
Kevin Warsh delivered his first speech as Federal Reserve Chair at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. He reiterated that policymakers will return inflation to their 2% goal, which he described as a firm and fixed target, and added that financial conditions are not currently restrictive. Without confidence that underlying inflation is returning to target, he said, the central bank has "work to do". Market pricing moved to reflect a 58% chance of a quarter-point rate hike on 16th September, even though core PCE came in line with expectations at +3.3% yoy.
The message from the Reserve Bank of Australia was similar. The minutes of its latest meeting revealed widespread concern that inflation remains too high. Headline CPI slowed from +3.8% yoy in June to +3.5% in July, while the core trimmed mean measure held at +3.6% yoy. Both series were firmer than expected, though they included several positives, including much lower inflationary pressure in the leading goods components and discretionary categories.
That picture was complicated on Thursday, when household spending data comfortably surpassed estimates. Spending rose +7.0% yoy in July, a strength that coincided with the +4.75% increase in minimum wage awards. If sustained, the higher level of spending will place further pressure on prices. The market is assigning a 50% chance of a rate hike at the end of September, with one full quarter-point increase priced by the end of 2026.
In Japan, Tokyo CPI edged up from +1.8% yoy in July to +1.9% yoy, while core inflation rose +0.2% to +2.0% yoy. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to 1.25% later this month, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to raise rates to 2.75% on Wednesday.
This week’s releases include updated Eurozone inflation figures, the ISM surveys and the Chinese PMIs. Australia's second-quarter GDP report, due on Wednesday, is expected to show +0.3% growth for the second consecutive quarter. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1% in Friday's August labour report. G20 finance ministers and central bank governors are also scheduled to meet in North Carolina.
Significant Upcoming Data:
Source: Bloomberg, S&P Dow Jones, MSCI, FTSE Russell, 29th August 2026
Disclaimer
The contents of this communication are prepared by Fin-X Capital Group Pty Ltd (A.C.N. 627 650 293; AFSL 520526 trading as Fin-X Capital). The information contained in this communication is general in nature and does not take into consideration any investors personal objectives, goals, needs and financial situation. You should not rely on the information contained in this document to make any investment decisions without first consulting an investment professional such as your financial adviser. Any unauthorised use of this document is prohibited. This document (including any attachments) is intended only for the addressee, it may contain information of a privileged and confidential nature. If you are not the addressee of this communication, you must not copy, reproduce, disseminate or use this email and its contents. If this communication has been received in error by you, please inform us immediately and securely delete. Sharing, transmitting, copying, disseminating all or part of the contents of this document may result in a breach of the Federal Privacy Legislation and or copyright and trademark infringement of Fin-X Capital Group Pty Ltd and its related entities.
